346
WTNT31 KNHC 091137
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today,
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday
and Wednesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before
it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the
risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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